Mr RCD, You guessed right. A lot of the workers apply when they're cut off by the Class Is, then decide to stick with the little guys because there's no extra board and they get along with the bosses.

Amazing what happens when you treat your people like trash.

And it's equally amazing to see how much less you can pay them when you don't.

A solid 75% of my employer's roster for train crews and MOW - myself included - are guys who know they're getting paid less, but like being able to sleep in their own beds every night and be able to have frank discussions with managers about how to run the place. You couldn't pay me enough to go to a Class I in the current conditions. I gave up on that idea a long time ago when I got married and realized I like to be able to have a functioning relationship with my wife!

Looks like agreements coming.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/three ... road-deals

I don't think we're gonna see these agreements being ratified without addressing quality of life issues.

Yep, and it looks like the two remaining Brotherhoods aren't backing down: https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews ... railroads/

“The carriers are in active discussions with the remaining unions about finalizing agreements based on the PEB’s recommendation,” the NCCC said in its statement. "However, the two operating craft unions … continue to maintain positions that were expressly rejected by the PEB.”

Those two unions — the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers-Transportation Division — continue to seek changes in work conditions and work rules. They issued a blistering statement earlier Sunday accusing the railroads of announcing embargoes on some cargo to pressure Congress to intervene in the negotiations."

I will add to the chorus that you are absolutely right and I will draw on experience outside of the industry.

First - There was once a huge billboard gracing the entrance to an Army base which I was overly familiar with showing an NCO reading a comic book and showing a a half dozen or so troopies in assorted variations of improper uniforms running up the hill in the background. (There is a pun in there which some of you should get.) The caption was "Ignore your troops. They'll go away." That's right out of Leadership 101 and it is one of the truest generalizations about management I've seen in or out of the service.

Second - I spent more than half of my first six years of marriage away from home. I do not mean twelve hours a day. I mean months at a time and once over a year without seeing my family. I know too well what the absences can do to a family. Our marriage survived it. Many of our peers' did not.

I consider it absolutely incredible that with all of the tools at their disposal corporate management simply cannot come up with a system of precision scheduled crew utilization which which treats labor as the capital asset which it is and maintains it, rather than as an expendable supply item.

GME

I always try to remember two important things about employment.

It's not an accident that "work" is a four-lettered word.

Bosses are usually like diapers. Location and content.

Many of the grievances I read remind me of those of public accounting. Eighteen years ago I made that mistake. Of course if you survive a couple years at a Big 4, there's plenty of options.

I still remember the superstar "senior" (job supervisor) who asked me "how is it you know how life expectancies work, but don't know how to do a search for unrecorded liabilities.


She was utterly astonished when I said, "because I worked at an insurance company for ten years and got three professional insurance designations and I got my CPA doing maternity care audits."

I really had to choke back the urge to say "how come you don't know if you are expecting your first child to be delivered at or beyond age 35 you are automatically diagnosed with ICD-9-CM Diagnosis Code 659.50 Elderly primigravida, unspecified as to episode of care or not applicable.

There's a funny thing that makes the round comparing public accounting to prostitution.

You show up looking like a million bucks and at the end of your shift, you look like hell.

You are paid a fee for the job, irrespective of how long it takes.

You get called to work jobs that involve nights and weekends and days everybody else is off.

You spend a lot of time in hotel rooms paid for by somebody else.

If the client beats you up, the pimp just sends you to another client.

Of course nothing beats working at Goldman Su, er I mean Sachs..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sT5jJlqjT04


Of course railroads have improved: At least today, unlike 95 years ago, they don't have a rookie brakeman working on his own, in the dark and before radios and then when he's decapitated, tell his younger brother, go home get some sheets, something happened to George.

From the linked article posted above:

"… include a 24% wage increase during the five-year period from 2020 to 2024".

If current inflation were to persist, they would need 24% a year just to stay ahead of the current real rate of inflation, measured using the pre-1980 system, which is running at nearly 20% Y-O-Y. The highest previous was 13.8% inflation back around 1980. The market basket of goods used to calculate inflation has been "adjusted" multiple times since then to make the advertised CPI look lower and reduce the cost of living adjustments in social security.

All the media distort the inflation reporting when they show CPI spanning from the 1970s through the present time as a single chart. There have been multiple adjustments to the basket of goods over that time, the most recent being reduction of the calculations for cost of replacing autos just three months ago. Taking things out of the basket could make reported CPI go down but real cost of buying what you need to survive might still increase.

And some items exceed the calculated CPI significantly. In the USA food was recently reported running at 13%, energy was 33%.

PC

My local chairman sent me the information where I'm to be posted for picket duty yesterday evening... it's getting close.

Even if we take the nominal numbers at face value; the situation is not good.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there ... -cpi-print

What people generally don't understand about inflation is that that it isn't instantaneous; it propagates. It also doesn't affect everybody equally or at the same time. It enriches those where it starts because they have dollars that haven't yet been denuded of purchasing power. At the end, it people who have accepted those dollars find out that two of the attributes of money (Medium of exchange and store of value) are seriously attenuated.


Unfortunately, the world is filled with economic imbeciles and pretentious charlatans (usually politicians) eager to coin a slogan that exploits the ignorance. There are entirely too many people who don't understand the first rule of economics is that everything is scarce and the first rule of politics is to ignore the first rule of economics.

Until (and I'm not holding my breath) people understand that their prosperity comes from the efforts of ordinary people going about their business, rather than politicians and their symbiotes interfering in it; we're going to repeat this over and over.

Inflation compounds just like interest. At a real inflation rate of 20% which is what the pre-1980 system would indicate we are very close to, right now, the cost of everything will double in just four years. Conversely, the value of any savings you have will be cut in half in that time.

If you take $1.00 and multiply it by 1.20 for four times in a row, the result is not $1.80, it is $2.07.

If this inflation situation persists, the railroad workers will need to be earning twice as much in four years as they are now, just to stay even. People who want to retire may not be able to do so, they may need to keep working regular jobs, which may impact preservation organizations. People currently retired may have to return to the work force if they do not have investments that are hedged against inflation.

I cost estimated major projects in the railroad industry for 45 years and I have never seen any time even remotely like what is happening right now. This inflation situation is literally going where nobody has ever gone before.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/army-suggest ... -inflation

For a good analysis of the situation watch interviews by Bill Holter. Yes he is a precious metals dealer, I know that and take it into account, but he has had a really good handle on what is happening. If he has a fault it is that things are happening later than he predicted. But that is a lot like running a railroad.

PC

Posters over on r/railroading say that BNSF means Better Not Start a Family.No, all that has happened is that leaders of several unions have agreed to let their members vote on proposed contracts that don't address the quality of life issues. I agree with Ed's assessment - I doubt that union membership will ratify contracts that don't address the quality of life issues.
Per posters on r/railroading, all the unions are telling their members to not cross picket lines for their personal safety.

BNSF = Bad News Spreads Fast

BNSF Buffett's Not Some Filanthropist...