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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 3:33 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:52 am
Posts: 2214
Location: Strasburg, PA
Rick Rowlands wrote:
Will anything that is not absolutely essential to human existence survive in this country if the current trend of inflation and high fuel prices continue? There is no relief in sight.
I guess you weren't around in the 1970's? Inflation upwards of 12%, and gas going from $0.31 to $0.87 in the span of about three years, and yet, the seventies were what can be looked back on now as the salad days of tourist railroading, with the number of steam locomotives brought into service and new tourist lines starting up.

I bought my first new car in 1981, and counted myself lucky to get a loan at only 18% interest. I bought my first house in 1988, and counted myself lucky to get a mortgage at only 10-3/4%.

News outlets are all saying that inflation is the worst it's been in forty years, but stopping short of reminding people who was president in 1982. People were having serious doubts about Regan's leadership at this stage of his presidency, and his approval rating was nothing to write home about, but high interest rates calmed inflation, and in 1984 he carried 49 states.

Believe it or not, the sky isn't falling. The Strasburg Rail Road has always enjoyed its best years when inflation was on the rise, and the economy was in the dumper.

Ton Gears, please delete this thread. It's what a friend of mine used to refer to as "mental masturbation".

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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 3:34 pm 

Joined: Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:21 am
Posts: 54
Has anyone here been following the Cumbres and Toltec or Durango and Silverton news? It appears to me, from afar, that they both may be forced to shut down this year. Not even diesels can run, from the sounds of it.

It is worrisome for sure. If fuel costs go up, so does everything. Common carriers all use diesel, tractors for farms use diesel. But you all know this.

It will get interesting for sure. I don’t think any one industry will “die”. They may struggle. But that struggle will lead to new adaptations and advancements. It’s time to pick yourself up by the bootstraps, and pull yourself together. Time for the strong men and woman to prove themselves and make it through this, together. We are all on the same team here, I hope.


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 3:45 pm 

Joined: Wed Dec 24, 2014 3:15 pm
Posts: 552
I’ve heard nothing about the Cumbres and Toltec.

And for the D&S? I heard from somewhere they restarted operations after a pause of a few days for the fire danger.

The D&S has suffered through worse. Like 4 years ago, man 2018 was horrible for them.


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 4:23 pm 
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Joined: Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:46 pm
Posts: 2521
Location: Pac NW, via North Florida
Saddle up the four horsemen of the apocalypse, someone thinks they're needed for a ride!
Guys, anyone here should have a basic understanding of history overall and good times and bad flow like waves on the ocean. One follows the other, into forever.
And here's the thing about that; if anyone could actually predict the future, they'd be making some mad money from investments. But the person who could tell you for sure that something specific will happen tomorrow other than death and taxes has yet to be born.
Just look online for all the predictions that folks with a lot of experience that went nowhere.
And never forget that especially online, everyone loves headlines that foster fear, because nothing gets you views faster than that!
The world is ever-changing and so is society. Whatever bumps we will face, it's just the way it is.
But if we haven't lost the majority of railroad preservation in the last 15 years or so, I think it's clear it isn't going to happen so, no matter what ill-informed "sky is falling" predictions come our way.
RailMech3 wrote:
It will get interesting for sure. I don’t think any one industry will “die”. They may struggle. But that struggle will lead to new adaptations and advancements. It’s time to pick yourself up by the bootstraps, and pull yourself together. Time for the strong men and woman to prove themselves and make it through this, together. We are all on the same team here, I hope.
If the 2008 nightmare didn't kill preservation railroads, and a global pandemic didn't kill it entirely (though admittedly that did cripple and kill a handful of operations). There's no evidence to support anything going on at this time is going to have any greater impact.

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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 4:45 pm 

Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:04 pm
Posts: 162
Location: San Jose, CA
Similar to any industry, economic conditions have made a direct impact on the viability of tourist rail attractions. Ours has been a dynamic environment since the earliest attractions in the 1950s, if not before. Just look at any early addition of the Steam Passenger Service Directory originally published by the Empire State Railway Museum. There are many attractions that have long since disappeared from the landscape.

Part of those economic conditions is fuel. The costs associated with fuel will always be variable. Fossil fuels will never disappear... just the costs toward using them will increase. Those costs may include a change to an alternative fuel source.

As stated many times on this board…”non-profit” is a tax status, NOT a business plan. To remain viable, ALL organizations must have a business plan that account for changes in the economic landscape. There has been and always will be lean times as well as fat time. Once again, revisit the old Directories to get a sense of how dynamic the industry has been, not over 40 to 50 years, but year to year.

The largest long term hindrance to our industry is a declining interest from the youth. While there are exceptions, the vast majority of our organizations are greying. Compounding this trend is the dwindling public knowledge of railroading in general.

Instead of taking a “sky is falling attitude”, we should embrace new opportunities and partnerships that may have been unthinkable in the past.

The only thing constant is change.


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 6:46 pm 

Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:56 pm
Posts: 88
As seen online.


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 6:57 pm 

Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:07 pm
Posts: 977
Location: B'more Maryland
Hahaha.

Wasn't me!

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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 7:46 pm 

Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2011 4:29 pm
Posts: 1830
Location: Youngstown, OH
It is no wonder that this forum is a laughing stock. I bring up a serious issue, something that will certainly impact all of our operations in the upcoming months and years and what do we get? Several who are only concerned with policing what topics should or should not be discussed, accusations that I am an infowars follower, being accused of "mental masturbation" (whatever that means) and now memes.

OK fine. Have it your way. Don't worry about anything at all. Everything is just perfect in railway preservation. We are immune to the economics that impact the rest of the world apparently. My bad for thinking we were all mature "industry professionals" here.

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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 8:26 pm 

Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 10:08 am
Posts: 649
Kelly Anderson wrote:
Tom Gears, please delete this thread. It's what a friend of mine used to refer to as "mental masturbation".

"Don't knock masturbation. It's sex with someone I love."

Woody Allen "Annie Hall"


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 8:50 pm 

Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:56 pm
Posts: 88
Rick Rowlands wrote:
It is no wonder that this forum is a laughing stock. I bring up a serious issue, something that will certainly impact all of our operations in the upcoming months and years and what do we get? Several who are only concerned with policing what topics should or should not be discussed, accusations that I am an infowars follower, being accused of "mental masturbation" (whatever that means) and now memes.

OK fine. Have it your way. Don't worry about anything at all. Everything is just perfect in railway preservation. We are immune to the economics that impact the rest of the world apparently. My bad for thinking we were all mature "industry professionals" here.


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 8:56 pm 

Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:15 pm
Posts: 1262
Someone needs to make RYPN bingo!

- “this thread should be locked!”
- “non profit is just a tax status!”
- “nobody actually cares about steam”
- “it’s all the fault of (insert current presidents name)”
- “it’s all the fault of (insert past presidents name)”

And..... BINGO!!!


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 9:51 pm 

Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 3:07 pm
Posts: 977
Location: B'more Maryland
My point is that there was a much more constructive way to have started this conversation if, of course, Rick really was interested in a constructive one instead of engaging in some tribal virtue signaling.

Here's the example: "Hey guys, what effects have you seen on your operation during periods of high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty? Any words of wisdom for a younger group that wants to weather any upcoming storms?"

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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 10:16 pm 

Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:47 pm
Posts: 131
We'll all be sure to consult your "expertise" next time we want to start a discussion, Ed.

As the saying goes "nobody cares, move on" (yes we can all do that on here!)


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 11:03 pm 

Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:47 pm
Posts: 1134
Location: Philadelphia, PA
We had higher inflation in the 1970's.

We survived then and will survive now.

Phil Mulligan


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 Post subject: Re: Will This Industry Survive?
PostPosted: Thu May 19, 2022 11:42 pm 

Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2011 4:29 pm
Posts: 1830
Location: Youngstown, OH
Ed Kapuscinski wrote:
My point is that there was a much more constructive way to have started this conversation if, of course, Rick really was interested in a constructive one instead of engaging in some tribal virtue signaling.

Here's the example: "Hey guys, what effects have you seen on your operation during periods of high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty? Any words of wisdom for a younger group that wants to weather any upcoming storms?"


And you could have interpreted my post in that way (which would have been the correct interpretation BTW) and actually provided some useful advice, but instead you made an infowars comment.

I accused you of living in a bubble, but I think RYPN is also a bubble. No fewer than three people have messaged me tonight wondering "what the hell is with those guys on RYPN", referring to the response to my post. Yeah, I am wondering that too.

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