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| OT - Railcar Loadings Declining https://rypn.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=26511 |
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| Author: | PCook [ Tue Nov 04, 2008 7:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | OT - Railcar Loadings Declining |
Okay, its not directly preservation related, but lots of posts on this site aren't preservation related either. Railcar loadings one of the best indicators of the future of the economy and categories related to heavy industrial production have declined quite rapidly. This is something that is going to have an affect everybody very soon, in their own wallet and at the ticket booth. PC http://www.aar.org/Pressroom/PressRelea ... tWeek.aspx |
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| Author: | PCook [ Fri Jan 09, 2009 7:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Absolutely Dismal Railcar Loading Figures for December |
The figures for total railcar loadings in the US for 4th quarter of 2008 are available now, they were down 8.2% from 2007 levels. However the December 2008 figures are particularly ominous compared with December 2007. Chemicals down 21.8% Vehicles down 39.8% Metals down 44.9% PC |
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| Author: | thirdrail [ Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: OT - Railcar Loadings Declining |
The declines of the last two weeks of 2008 are so severe (around 20 percent for all traffic) that if this continues for a year, we will have railroad bankrupties again. The only Class I not in the 20 percent bracket is the KCS. Scary, very scary...glad I get Railroad Retirement and not a railroad salary. |
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| Author: | Alexander D. Mitchell IV [ Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: OT - Railcar Loadings Declining |
I will reiterate what I said earlier about the tourist railroad industry, as it also applies to the major railroads: If you're running your business in such a way that you cannot survive a 20% decline in revenue, you are mis-managing your business. My wife's business--specialty retail--had to survive the opening of a vicious competitor in an area that already had two other competitors nearby. The net decline is about 40%, and layoffs/restructuring has ensued after nearly a year. Yes, we can expect layoffs, or no new hires, and maybe downsizing in certain corridors for now (think the "chemical coast"). But railroads now have more flexibility to change rates, employment, service, etc. than in the "bad old days" in the 1960s when the ICC prevented railroads from abandoning lines or passenger train service. Go back and watch the Penn Central film referenced earlier--how long has it been since we've seen basically a whole railroad operating on slow orders and trains rocking off the tracks? |
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| Author: | PCook [ Sat Jan 10, 2009 8:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Economic Truth |
Railcar loadings are one of the most reliable indicators of the actual state of the economy, they are not an index that gets "adjusted" by a bunch of pseudo experts inside the beltway. The decline over the last few months is the steepest I have ever seen in four decades in the industry. It is going to be a wild ride in 2009. PC |
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| Author: | bbunge [ Sat Jan 10, 2009 10:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: OT - Railcar Loadings Declining |
There has been some impressive winter weather this year, both in the west and east, as seen by the current major flooding in both the west and midwest. How much is that impacting car loads; not only from damage to infrastructure, but from businesses that have been impacted. Expect to see more major flooding in the midwest this summer as a healthly snow pack melts on already saturated ground. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_swe/200901/nsm_swe_2009011005_National.jpg Bob |
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