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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 10:25 pm 

Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 2:27 am
Posts: 569
Location: Winters, TX
Kevin Moore wrote:
"You can see it from Munson Ave. I don't know who owns the parcel but cars get parked there so you should be able to get right up to it."




Yes, you can see the 643 from Munson Ave. If you want to get closer, I would advise that you FIRST gain permission from the property owner.


That's normally good advice but I don't know if it applies when the property is allegedly about to be sold. If you do contact the owner, maybe you could confirm whether the property is about to be sold and when. My suggestion is to go there after midnight with a coupla cranes and a really fast truck (that's a joke not meant to be taken seriously. Likewise, if all is lost and the locomotive is destined to be scrapped, I would never suggest visiting it one last time with a really big hose, a load of firewood and a match).


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 9:19 am 

Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 2:22 pm
Posts: 1543
I see the following factors that enter into the purchase of this locomotive:

1) The asking price.
2) The scrap value.
3) The value of work done to the locomotive since it was retired.
4) The cost of transportation to another storage site.

The factor that seems to be least defined in this discussion is #3. For a well-used locomotive that is worth saving and rebuilding, the cost of rebuilding is very significant. Maybe somebody can provide examples of this cost with specific locomotives that have been completely restored for operation. What was the estimated cost for restoring L&A engine #503, for example?

What would have been the cost of the restoration work already completed on B&LE #643?

Considering all of the four items above, what would be the value of 643 if it were protected in secure storage under a long term contract, with a connection to live rail, and was restored to the very good operating condition?


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 9:21 am 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:19 pm
Posts: 2559
Location: Sackets Harbor, NY
Not a great neighborhood to be roaming around at night. Any solution other than scrapping in place will require a major 6 figure investment and lots of advance planning and professional execution skills.

Unless Mr. Campbell has had a MAJOR attitude adjustment in recent days I'd guess that the likelihood of a deal being reached with any legitimate buyer is very slim.

As previously posted I do hope that if scrapping in place is the outcome that someone will have the foresight to salvage the major appliances ( stoker engine & worm, air pumps, feedwater system, injector(s), dynamos etc.) so they're not lost to the scrap yard.

Sad but true. Ross Rowland


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 9:36 am 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:19 pm
Posts: 2559
Location: Sackets Harbor, NY
In answer to Ron's question. The value of the work done on this locomotive decades ago is negligible as to be returned to service it will need to be put through the full FRA 1472 day drill.

Depending some on the results of the ultra sound testing of the boiler and the condition of the running gear doing the full FRA work up will cost somewhere between an absolute minimum of $ 1.5 million and $ 3.5 million if done in a professional shop on a 1-2 year schedule. If done largely by volunteer labor ( think AT&SF 2926) then you can figure somewhere between $ 500k- $ 1 million and 7-10 years to complete.

In either scenario there's zero sense doing it UNLESS you have a written, duly executed contract ( not a verbal promise) covering its operation once restored. Also, that operational contract would need to be in a place with sufficient population to support the ridership numbers needed to earn enough net ( operative word NET) revenues to generate a decent ROI for the monies invested to bring her back to life AND put funds into a maintenance trust account to fund her continued upkeep.

All things considered ( especially the owner) sadly the most likely end to this story will be scrapping her in place.

IMHO-Ross Rowland


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 10:01 am 

Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 2:22 pm
Posts: 1543
co614 wrote:
In answer to Ron's question. The value of the work done on this locomotive decades ago is negligible as to be returned to service it will need to be put through the full FRA 1472 day drill.

Depending some on the results of the ultra sound testing of the boiler and the condition of the running gear doing the full FRA work up will cost somewhere between an absolute minimum of $ 1.5 million and $ 3.5 million if done in a professional shop on a 1-2 year schedule. If done largely by volunteer labor ( think AT&SF 2926) then you can figure somewhere between $ 500k- $ 1 million and 7-10 years to complete.

IMHO-Ross Rowland

What exactly was the work done to the locomotive? I recall someone here saying that a lot of work had been done, and leaving the implication that the engine is ready for operation. It was implied that the boiler is in excellent condition. You make it sound like all of that work counts for nothing. Is there somebody here who can speak to the actual condition of this locomotive and the actual extent of the earlier work done by the owner?


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 10:14 am 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:19 pm
Posts: 2559
Location: Sackets Harbor, NY
Ron, under the FRA regs all the previous boiler work counts for ZERO as the entire boiler now must be ultra sounded to determine the condition ( thickness) of the metal among other parts of the new steam locomotive regs.

If it had been completely rebuilt in the 1980's and never used it would still be required to go through the entire FRA drill to re-enter service.

Therefore the relative value of previous work is not much.

Ross Rowland


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 10:31 am 

Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 2:22 pm
Posts: 1543
Ross,

So you have the cost of the ultrasonic testing; and then there is the cost of doing the rebuilding that the ultrasonic testing finds to be required. If this boiler is in like new condition, as has been reported here, then why would ultrasonic testing find millions of dollars worth of new work to be necessary?

What is the cost of just the ultrasonic testing alone that would be necessary?


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 12:49 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 1:51 pm
Posts: 11497
Location: Somewhere east of Prescott, AZ along the old Santa Fe "Prescott & Eastern"
Ron Travis wrote:
I see the following factors that enter into the purchase of this locomotive:

1) The asking price.
2) The scrap value.
3) The value of work done to the locomotive since it was retired.
4) The cost of transportation to another storage site.

<snip>

Considering all of the four items above, what would be the value of 643 if it were protected in secure storage under a long term contract, with a connection to live rail, and was restored to the very good operating condition?


You left out a critical item on the list:
5) The potential--IF ANY--of return on investment through resale or commercial use of ANY sort.

And I don't care if it's working on the Rocky Mountaineer, being the ultimate "engineer for a day" attraction, or getting run off a cliff for the latest Indiana Jones Hollywood epic.

Without any potential of return, you are not "buying an asset;" you are instead assuming a massive liability, even if you are Mr. Moneybags and have your own railroad upon which to move it, restore it, and operate.


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 1:07 pm 

Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:37 pm
Posts: 83
I believe that Ross and Alexander have hit on the most important point in steam locomotive preservation as potential operating engines.

Unless, you have a definite place to run the thing after restoration (in writing) plus a revenue stream to operate and keep it in operating condition restoring it to service is a moot point. Keep in mind many short line/regional roads have in the past, been open to considering running restored steam but when they realize the potential liabilities of bringing the public on their property plus the manpower to handle these events they shy away from any operation of steam excursion trains. Also managements at these roads often changes hands and don't care to honor previous agreements to run steam. When it comes to operating on a class 1 road...forget it! They don't want or can handle anything like this on their property.

Outside of a few safe, well run, organized and "profitable" steam groups ...small steam in operating museums in the future of steam excursions.

exprail


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 1:26 pm 

Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 10:03 am
Posts: 192
Does anyone know if a tourist railroad would be interested in helping? Strasburg and Cuyahoge are two that may come to mine. Would Strasburg be interested in saving this and possible bringing it back? What about Jason Sobczynski or the guys at Kentucky Steam?


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 1:46 pm 

Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 2:22 pm
Posts: 1543
Alexander D. Mitchell IV wrote:
Ron Travis wrote:
I see the following factors that enter into the purchase of this locomotive:

1) The asking price.
2) The scrap value.
3) The value of work done to the locomotive since it was retired.
4) The cost of transportation to another storage site.

<snip>

Considering all of the four items above, what would be the value of 643 if it were protected in secure storage under a long term contract, with a connection to live rail, and was restored to the very good operating condition?


You left out a critical item on the list:
5) The potential--IF ANY--of return on investment through resale or commercial use of ANY sort.



I thought about including that part about the business potential, but I thought it would be too difficult to accurately determine. As purely a business proposition, it seems very poor due to the risk and uncertainty. So seems that the use would be a combination of some kind of commercial use coupled with a love of steam locomotives. All I can conclude is that the return on investment is a potential that will exist, but it is just basically wrapped up in a desire to own the engine. Maybe it operates for profit or maybe just for enjoyment. Maybe it becomes a static display that is eventually sold to someone else who finds a profitable potential to operate the locomotive. There are lots of reasons to buy a locomotive.

So I have excluded this factor of return on investment and concentrated on four factors that go into the value as an antique. Those factors are the purchase price, the condition, the cost of moving and storing, and the scrap value which is another expression of return on investment, but far easier to determine. The condition can be quantified, but such information has not been provided.

The four factors on my list can be quantified, and I will guess at the numbers that will be found by price bids:


1) The asking price: Best offer, assume $75,000.

2) The scrap value: $25,000-50,000.

3) The value of work done to the locomotive since it was retired: Unknown without documentation or detailed inspection.

4) The cost of transportation to another storage site: $140,000


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 2:53 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:19 pm
Posts: 2559
Location: Sackets Harbor, NY
You're WAY LOW on your # 4 item. The total cost to move that engine will be at least 2 or 3 times your number at a minimum.

And that's if you can find a capable heavy hauler to bid on the job. And, if you can get a qualified heavy hauler to bid you can be sure that they'll want payment in full up front.

IMHO-Ross Rowland


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 5:27 pm 

Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 2:22 pm
Posts: 1543
Well with the abundance of impossible hurdles put forth in this thread, I have to suspect the cost of moving is being overstated. But in any case, I said my number was a guess. It depends on a lot of things including a number of possible loading approaches and various types of equipment. It depends on how far it is moved. What is your basis for concluding the cost of moving? Do you have some comparables that you can share with us?


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 8:27 pm 

Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2004 5:19 pm
Posts: 2559
Location: Sackets Harbor, NY
Rob Gardner who is a part of the 2100 effort can tell us what it cost them to load/unload that locomotive onto approved heavy weight flatcars for transport by rail from Washington State to Cleveland, Ohio and what they paid the bring it across country.

They had the advantage of the 2100 being on live rail so that made shipment by rail possible.

The 643 is landlocked and thus the sole way it can be moved is in pieces by heavy haul trucks.

Based upon what the guys in Nashville paid to move their locomotive not very far by special heavy custom extreme weight trailer my semi-educated guess is that to separate the 643 into truckable sized pieces, load & secure those pieces, unload on the other end and re-assemble will run somewhere between $ 200,000-$ 350,000. Then you have to add the trucking fee to move it to its new home which of course will be mileage based.

I'd be amazed if you could do the above and ship it say within 250 miles of Pittsburgh for less than about $ 500,000 ???

Again, unless Mr. Campbell has come into reality the most likely end to this story will be her getting scrapped in place.

Sad but true. Ross Rowland


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 Post subject: Re: 643 for sale on eBay?
PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 8:48 pm 

Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 2:22 pm
Posts: 1543
co614 wrote:

I'd be amazed if you could do the above and ship it say within 250 miles of Pittsburgh for less than about $ 500,000 ???

Again, unless Mr. Campbell has come into reality the most likely end to this story will be her getting scrapped in place.

Sad but true. Ross Rowland


What would Mr. Campbell have to do, in your opinion, in order to "come into reality," as you say?


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